“We believe that oil prices are unlikely to decline in the next decade, despite global efforts to eradicate zero. However, global supply may be unnecessary over the next five years amid growing inflationary pressures, setting a precedent for unprecedented oil prices, ”BMO Markets, October 2021
The U.S. Department of Energy The International Energy Outlook 2021 was recently released on October 6th.
Long-term forecast (2020-2050) from our National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).
In line with the International Energy Agency’s International Energy Model, NEMS is the most important energy concept – not from the Sierra Club, not from ExxonMobil, not from Koch’s conspiracy.
Most importantly coming under President Biden’s Department of Energy (i.e., under the most powerful renewable energy agenda and electric car agenda in American history), our recent modeling still ensures that all previous management has: oil and natural gas will remain the foundation of our great potential.
In fact, under the underlying conditions (most importantly, avoiding speculation and current policy models and technological approaches) oil and gas consumption is expected to increase (see graphs).
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Given everything we hear so often from so many media outlets and our politicians, the professionals who make up “too much oil and gas” should totally shock us.
Or, perhaps not so much: after more than a decade of Herculean gains in renewal and almost six years after the Paris climate agreement, oil and gas still supply ~ 65% of global energy and ~ 70% of U.S. energy.
Even in the US, where additional energy needs are not close to what they are globally, demand for oil and gas is expected to rise 3.5 billion b / d (+ 19%) and 4.6 trillion cubic feet (+ 15%) from 2020-2050 , respectively.
Contrary to what we have often heard, the speculation about fuel and gas set is quite reasonable.
A very large country there, and only getting bigger: from 2020 to 2050, the U.S. Department of Energy. The world is adding another $ 1,935 million and $ 87 billion to economic growth.
Not surprisingly, the US Department of Energy has a global energy demand that is expected to rise by another 47% over the next 30 years, when heavy oil is depleting the world\’s most important oil.
In the end, this is a fast-moving, fast-moving \”mass\” train, which is why oil and gas companies do not have to vigorously promote the use of their products as innovations by other competitors.
The current global crisis of \”globalization\” shows that we cannot even afford and burn ourselves today, let alone the waste of the \”extra\” that we can bring if we want to quickly reduce our energy resources, namely oil and gas.
Just imagine what the future holds: the world is growing 85% poorer (i.e., non-OECD) and it is understandable that you want to access the same energy options that made us Westerners richer and longer.
Even the main fuel that strongly encourages renewable energy (even if you lose money for them) is going to look bad.
I have always said that BP\’s forecast for high fuel demand in 2019 was more focused on public relations than reality – I fear that oil emissions make some of its suppliers say things they may know to be untrue.
Oil and gas companies, you see, sell products that are so important in our daily lives that they do not need to develop themselves as renewable and other competitors.
A real shocker, I know: The U.S. Department of Energy He reports that oil demand will reach record levels next year, at 101.5 million b / d.
Contrary to many people\’s claims, the U.S. oil demand And worldwide it does not end but is set … [+] DATA SOURCE: EIA; JTC
U.S. oil demand Globally it is set to rise sharply because, as it grows in importance, electricity … [+] DATA SOURCE: EIA; JTC
We are already seeing a global energy crisis and rising prices as the dream of “we must stop investing in oil and gas” clashes violently with reality: rising demand from Covid-19 for vital energy sources.
We have been seeing a fixed $ 6 per MMBtu gas per U.S. and over $ 35 in Europe.
Asian electricity prices hit $ 56 last week.
Note: self-satisfaction thanks to the American shale revolution (which is why many of our politicians now want to stop it) is why electricity prices are not as dangerously high as they are in imports to Asia and Europe.
Too many are confused by the destruction of Covid-19 power supply and changes in consumer behavior.
However, it is as simple as you think.
The 2020 oil and gas demand (and coal) demand has nothing to do with Energy Transition but also the closure and economic devastation caused by Covid-19.
Indeed, the recent announcement by the International Energy Agency to suspend new oil and gas production to meet the 2050 carbon targets will not significantly reduce demand but will create significant shortages in supply prices and economic growth.
We are already seeing the negative effects of “non-production” in the name of the weather.
After years of small investments in the new supply, 2020 saw a 35% reduction in the fuel and gas CAPEX (capital expenditure) used for mass production, meaning that the worst situation is near.
Exhibit-a: Despite the growing demand for gas and rising prices, Europe is currently removing its largest stadium, Groningen, eight years earlier than originally planned.
For example, air shortages have left much of the UK\’s air supply inoperable, so electricity and electricity prices are registered as a result.
Many who see only a short time celebrating as climate discrimination has banks afraid to borrow money for oil and gas.
All of this is alarming about the Energy Revolution.
We are on the right track here with oil and gas especially when it comes to this global change.
If we do not invest in new oil and gas assets, we are confident of delivering a more reliable energy system, higher suspension, and higher prices – indeed a deadly combination that will make Energy Transition politically intolerable.
Cooling, heating, and food prices today are a disaster for helping people and have already made a huge “rethink” in advance of our Energy Transformation process.
We see this now with protests and anti-arrogance votes (or at least people think so) of climate change policies in Europe, a climate change agency.
Perhaps making the \”deep electrification\” we want to combat climate change politically impossible, we are losing electricity security, as demonstrated in Europe now, in Texas in February and California last August.
Since airplanes, heavy trucks, and petroleum chemicals compensate for any lost demand in electric vehicles, the impact of climate change policies on oil needs could have a significant impact on growing oil demand, not on total demand itself (see BMO quote above).
While I think it is possible to make the case that global oil demand will increase by 2030 and then the plains (i.e., don’t believe those who tell you about the decline in oil use), it makes no sense to guess the same thing with natural gas.
Ironically, more gas will be needed, not less, as we build wind and solar power, which explains why our greenest country, California, is now building five new gas stations “to avoid power outages.”
Let\’s take PJM Interconnection, the largest energy market in the U.S., serving more than 65 million customers in 13 states and the Colombian Region.
In PJM, S&P Global reports that “fidelity requirements” have 22,000 MW of new generation gas emissions from 2021 to 2026, compared to 14,385 MW of solar and 9,445 MW of air.
In Asia\’s most important oil reserves, gas will be needed to move farther away from King Coal: coal still draws 65% of China\’s energy and ~ 70% of India\’s energy.
I think what we are seeing now in devastated Europe in particular, forced to turn to fossil fuels due to gas shortages, reflects what I see as the most important reality of the Energy Transition.
And here it is: there is no denying that natural gas is a medium and should not be taken lightly.
While the International Energy Agency is changing its position in an unpredictable way this year, it has been telling us for decades that billions of dollars are being invested in growing oil and gas (E&P) plants to meet new needs for decades to come.
With COP26 in Glasgow a few weeks ago, all of this explains why our main goal for climate change is not to “remove” oil and gas but to make its production, transportation, and consumption as clean as possible.